The Market Cycle. Anyone who read/understood this pattern sold in January.

An interesting read...​The Market Cycle Wears No ClothesA Psychosocial Field Guide to Cryptocurrency’s Most Important Patternhttps://medium.com/@cryptology.jones/marketcycle-4e5407d0c68​Extracts from article:"What follows is the single most important thing I learned in 12 months of intense study."Since 2010, the lifecycle of financial bubbles has played double-duty as Bitcoin’s market cycle. It is our asset class’s calendar of emotional seasons, and it’s the cryptocurrency market’s Rosetta Stone.Currently (at the time of writing) we’re near the end of Bitcoin’s 4th overall cycle, near the bottom of the bear market stage. (This article was published in August 2018).Bitcoin’s Market Cycle Stage 1: AccumulationThis stage lasts many months.Everything is low. Low prices, low volume, low volatility, low expectations.The bottom may be in, but retail investors are traumatized and fear further losses.Stage 2: Bull MarketA widely-anticipated regulatory fundamental news event acts as catalyst to push price to levels unseen since the early days of the bear market.In its first 100 days of price discovery, Bitcoin nearly doubles its old all-time-high.Stage 2, Part 2: ParabolaBitcoin’s price grows at a parabolic rate from this point forward. Retail FOMO becomes a global phenomenon.Retail buyers who sold in frustration after the last crash are now buying back in as price approaches its top.The timeframe for this last parabolic wave of buying has been amazingly consistent cross-parabola. Historically, all four times it’s lasted 5–7 weeks**. (Put that in your back pocket).**​Stage 3: Smart Money Takes ProfitMost retail investors think it’s a healthy correction and aren’t selling.This period lasts roughly 6–8 weeks.​Stage 4: Bear MarketRetail investors who haven’t been through a full market cycle fail to take profit, and are rekt.The final drop happens suddenly, on high volume, triggering an impulse wave of stoplosses and panic selling. It appears as a long wick on the daily chart.Many retail investors have just sold the bottom.The Fifth Parabola"Picture a financial instrument: from its inception, it has done one specific thing, and done it cyclically, four times in eight years, at ever-increasing rates of scale. Do you think Bitcoin will stop doing the thing it’s done four times in a row? The highest probability scenario is that the market cycle repeats itself a fifth time. "​...People understanding this can prepare for the next bull run, thing is we may need to drop another 20% before the bottom is in, that and most alt coins will not survive the next bull run :(​​

Submitted August 23, 2018 at 09:27PM