Nothing happenedThe amount of money in stablecoins right now is incredible. Pretty much everyone there is looking to time a re-entry. If you are the last one back in you are going to get absolutely decimated. Selling at 5k feels bad, but what feels worse is selling at 4.5k then having to buy back in at 6k+.Maybe it drops to 3k and you get to stack up. It's equally likely it rebounds hard to 6k. Look at what this selloff was - panic over literally nothing. Bakkt got delayed? Whatever. BCH put on a shitshow? We already knew they were a joke. That shouldn't change anything about the actual market.The rational response to the recent news would be for BCH holders to just all jump ship and buy BTC. Let BCH destroy itself. But irrational people will be irrational. Literally no bad news happened to cause the market to get chopped in half, yet here we are.Since fundamentals didn't really change, I'll just use this opportunity to pick up some more on the cheap. My sell window isn't going to be for another 5+ years anyhow, so in the big picture of things, the price being depressed right now is actually a good thing. I'm 100% unshakable. I'm not fucking selling. Ever._____________The stabilization of capitulationJust remember this - anyone BUYING on this pullback is now at their new base-floor. Someone that bought in at $10 and sold now at $4500 made a killing, but he was ITCHING to jump ship. This pullback just triggered it. He's now replaced with someone that is at their new ground floor and ain't fucking selling. THAT is how stability is created in these capitulation phases. The people selling now were itching to sell. The people buying now (not all, but many of them) are looking to hold long.Once all those bags transfer hands and everyone that wants off the train gets off, the train will then depart. When it does, there's lower and lower percentage of BTC available for trade, because there's more and more holders that are at their base floor. The BTC that used to be held by someone at a floor of $10 now has a holder at a floor of $4500. THAT is what causes the price action, and the massive parabolic bullruns.I also think that anyone buying today is going to be that person itching to jump off the ship in another 3-5 years, because even a $15k BTC purchase will look great in that timeframe. You will then get replaced by someone at their new ground floor of $50k (after a pullback from 200k to 50k). Rince and repeat. I think we are going to go through several more of these phases, simply because once someone 100x's their investment, they get itchy to cash-in._____________Timing the market vs time in the marketI'm not going to flip a coin and try to time an irrational market. I believe in this thing long term, which is good enough for me to be comfortable holding even BTC I bought at 10k. Sure it would be nice to have sold it and rebought now, but I don't have a crystal ball. I'm not confident I can time the market, but I'm still pretty confident where it's going longterm.Anyone that sells now is just gambling TBH. It could equally hit 3k or 8k. I personally am okay with it falling more - it means I can buy more. I'm not okay with missing out on a recovery after I already bled out 80% from ATH. Maybe it's easier for me to hold long, because I got in much earlier than most people here. I'm down from ATH, but nowhere close to that overall - especially considering big buys in the last day which were hopefully near bottom. We can recover to 30-40% of ATH and I'd probably break even.Everyone can invest how ever they feel more confident/comfortable. Sitting in tether/fiat right now would have me so incredibly stressed out. If holding crypto right now stresses you out, then get out, seal your losses. Maybe buy back in lower, maybe watch the train leave the station. What a terrible feeling that would be to suffer through 2018, then watch as other people get rich off the thing you believed in but gave up on - based on two idiots fighting about a shitcoin, and a 2 month product delay. Insanity IMO._________To me, it's easy to hold.Here's my perspective - if you think this thing is going to zero, get out. I don't. So I'm in. I'm not putting my families future on it, but I'm certainly putting some money on it.In 2025 if BTC is worth 50k, will I hate the 10k BTC I bought? Sure I would have rather tripled it by selling it at 10k and buying back in at 3k, but I'm still going to be extremely happy with the 10k purchase. I'm going to be happier with the 4.5k purchases yesterday. But overall, it will all come out in the wash and will likely destroy any other investment I could have made in that period.If it goes to zero, it goes to zero. $10k BTC to 0 would be a 100% loss. However, if BTC hits 50k in 2025, then I'm looking at like 1200%. Don't believe it will be 50k in 2025? What about 2040? That's still an insane return in that timeframe. So litearlly the only reason not to buy now (or to sell now) is if you either think you can predict the market and buy lower (you have a crystal ball), or if you think long term, 2040 this thing will be zero.The magnification potential in this space is incredible - you just need to zoom out your sell date. I think something like 50k BTC at some point in the future is extremely conservative.That's why I don't really give a shit if I buy a few grand $$ of BTC today and it falls 10%-20% in a week. Who gives a shit. Not me, not as long as I don't sell, and as long as I don't paint myself in a corner where I need the money. LONG TERM is when I'm selling (if at all), and the potential for me to leverage massive returns on a LONG TERM PERSPECTIVE is just too large to ignore. Just use Vegas money, then you don't care what happens to it, and you don't react emotionally. We all know we make mistakes when we react emotionally.With that perspective, it's really freaking easy to not only hold, but keep buying in.Of course, you all do you. I'll do me.
Submitted November 22, 2018 at 03:42AM
No comments:
Post a Comment