As we all know, when Bitcoin shot up to $20,000 at the end of 2017, the exponential growth of altcoins and the entire cryptocurrency space followed very shortly after. Because of this, many people today believe that in order for the next bull run to occur, Bitcoin must first go on another massive run before that money and hype can then enter the rest of the space. In this thread, I'm going to explain why I think Bitcoin won't be the cryptocurrency that leads the next bull run, and then i'll explain the attributes that I believe are essential for whichever cryptocurrency will end up leading it.Chances are that since you're reading this, you still believe in the future of cryptocurrency and own at least some. But the same cannot be said for most people who heard about or even bought some cryptocurrency near the height of the last bull run. Let's put ourselves into their shoes to understand what caused the last bull run and how that might influence how the next bull run plays out.In the following video from June 2019, two guys that don't know too much about Bitcoin meet up with a Bitcoin enthusiast and try to survive on it for a day. Watch how the two guys talk to each other about Bitcoin before they meet up with the enthusiast. (~30 seconds)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYFyKWz4mBg&t=80sThey call it "outdated" and compare it to the song Friday, the Youtuber RayWilliamJohnson, and the show Breaking Bad. Essentially what they're saying is that it was extremely popular for a short amount of time and then quickly died off. In other words, it was a fad. Now, I know it might trigger a Bitcoin maximalist to hear Bitcoin described as a fad, but to the average person that doesn't follow cryptocurrency religiously, it really did behave as a fad in every sense of the word. A quick google search gives us this definition: A fad is a product that has little, if any, utility but is characterized by a quick rise in sales and popularity followed by a quick decline in sales and popularity. This quick up and down in sales is because fad products usually do not satisfy a strong consumer need. Nevertheless, fads seldom completely die out, with some hardcore followers remaining loyal.Now, some people might be quick to point out that Bitcoin does have utility and it does satisfy a strong consumer need since, unlike our current FIAT monetary system, it's open, public, borderless, neutral, and censorship resistant. But these qualities weren't apparent, or necessarily even important, to the average person getting into cryptocurrency in 2017. What was apparent was that Bitcoin couldn't be spent anywhere because very few places accepted it, and it couldn't even be traded among each other since the fees reached absurd levels at times. Therefore, during Bitcoin's entire time in the mainstream spotlight, it's only real utility to the average person was it's use as a speculative investment, which consequently became the main reason people bought any. But when the price started to fall, it failed them in the one thing they saw it as useful for - making money. They had this cryptocurrency that they could not do anything with other than passively lose money, so they jumped ship and moved on.The point I'm trying to make is that Bitcoin had its opportunity in the mainstream spotlight, but it failed to be anything other than a speculative asset, resulting in it becoming a fad in most people's eyes rather than a trend. Non crypto enthusiasts won't have as much excitement and enthusiasm with Bitcoin the second time around, especially when very few things will have changed on a technical level and it still won't be usable as a currency. Even in the above linked video from just a few months ago, the people were unable to find a single place to spend their Bitcoin at all day (other than convincing an escort to give them pizza paid for with FIAT in exchange for their Bitcoin, lol)And that's precisely why I think Bitcoin won't be the cryptocurrency the leads this space into the next bull run. The bull run of 2017 was a speculative bull run centered around Bitcoin. You won't have another speculative bull run stemming from the exact same cryptocurrency that hasn't even changed on a fundamental level. If it simply remains an "outdated" speculative asset, it will be impossible to generate enough hype from people that will have already known about Bitcoin for years and have possibly even lost money from it. Speculation simply isn't enough. The next bull run has to come from use cases rather than speculation.So my advice: stop paying attention to the projects that spend all of their time and money marketing in an attempt to win over the ~0.01% of people still interested in cryptocurrencies, and start paying attention to the projects working quietly but diligently to win over the other ~99.99% of the population by actually accomplishing what their whitepaper sets out to do. Because these are the projects that have a legitimate chance to generate interest and lead the next bull run by becoming a fad like Bitcoin was in 2017. Except if they're actually useful for something other than speculation, they won't just be a fad - they will become a trend that sticks around and becomes widely adopted.______________________________________________________________________________________________________________Tl;dr: Bitcoin failed to be anything other than a speculative asset when it was in the mainstream spotlight during the 2017 bull run. It will be impossible for Bitcoin to generate that much hype again from speculation alone. The next bull run will be lead by a cryptocurrency that technologically accomplishes what its whitepaper sets out to do and has an actual use case, generating its own hype and widespread adoption independent of Bitcoin.
Submitted September 28, 2019 at 08:19AM
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