Why it is more likely for BTC to fizzle out and practically die than not

After yesterday, it is now officially more likely than not, according to technical analysis, that BTC will likely fizzle out and practically die in the very long term (next decade):I understand that this comment will elicit emotional reactions, but hear me out. Here are my arguments. If you want to rebut these arguments, feel free to respond, although I expect many of the responses to be "Ha, another BTC will die post, bottom signal guys, time to buy!"We confirmed a death cross on the 2D chart. This has always resulted in at minimum a 50% move down in BTC history. The last time this occurred was in the 6ks in 2018 and we ended up going to 3k.If 1. occurs, we will be back at 3k at the minimum. This is an 85% correction from the ATHThis point is most crucial. No asset in history has ever survived (and by survive I mean break ATH) long term where it experiences an a) 85+% correction and b) goes down to that same level.To expand on 3.), what do I mean by this? What I mean is that if we go to 3K, it will be the second time we experience a total of an 85% correction from the ATH back down to the same level. We have had corrections like this in other assets that have survived. For example, Amazon corrected to more than 80+% during the dot com crash. However, it did not crash back to the same level again. And this is a company that dominates online marketplaces with actual employees.In fact, you will find no example of any asset in history to have ever had an 80+% correction back to the same level relative to ATH (i.e. 3K is 85% down from 20K). If you can find a single chart, let me know. You won't. Every time this happened, the asset basically fizzled out. (i.e. series of lower highs over and over long term before it practically becomes worth zero). If you want a real life example of this, open the chart of your favorite shitcoin.Will it happen quickly? No. It could take a decade for all we know. Is it 100% sure that it will happen? No. You can't be 100% sure about anything. But it would be correct to say that it is now more likely for this to happen than for it not to happen.

Submitted March 30, 2020 at 11:05AM