Tell me, how many times have you come across statements like this:"The ICO Market Cannot be Trusted""STO's are Repackaged Dogshit""There are TOO MANY SCAMS"*"*The ICO Market is Dead""RIP EOY 2K17 Bags"---I can keep going with this. Currently statements like these are scattered everywhere. I frequently visit BitcoinTalk, 4Chan, Reddit, and a few other platforms, and I can't stress how much FUD is being spewed out.Even Bloomberg share's their stats on Septembers 17 Month Low in ICO Funding.But it's all with reason, a good portion of ICO's are indeed unrealistic/unplanned vaporware, or outright FOMO'ed scams. Manipulation is rampant, from your favorite YouTuber that's been tipped handsomely to go on his 'TOP 5 ICO's for October' Video, to the unofficial partnership claims shilled to my uncles rear.This doesn't cover the masses who are coyed over Facebook to Bitcoin Scams like this that tarnish anything and everything Crypto.I wonder if I'm not the only one with an endless list of Stock Photo users on Telegram with Generic American Names trying to 'Buy/Sell btc or eth'.Alex Carter, Please Stop.---People are far too worried over scams that even the name ICO has a very bad image. Especially to the uninformed.It's no wonder that ICO's as a whole are struggling to receive funding. This includes real, valuable projects with a USP of value that actually requires a fucking blockchain.This has driven me to write this post on the ICO Value Fallacy and a reminder of what to look out for when investing.---You need to establish firstly if you're in it for short term gains (trading), or long term.But we're here to cover the general aspects which net a positive return within the next 2-3 months post ICO.1. Minimum Viable Product (MPV)Does that Whitepaper look legit?Is it too basic and throws in ERC-20 and Buzzwords?Is it too technical to the point that it's suspicious? (This is a hard one)Does the project you're looking at actually have an MVP, a TestNet?No I don't mean some stranger with a thick Slavic accent recording a video of a console spewing out a ton of 'transactions' claiming to have 'Broken Visa's TPS'. (no offence, I have many Slavic friends and I love them)Does this Product/Solution they offer actually have a need?Who is their Target Market? How and Why do they benefit from the Token?2. Team & CommunityHow does their team look like? No please don't just tell me they're on Linkedin.Is there Empirical. Solid. Hard. Proof that these guys exist and are actively developing on their project?How do they manage the incentives and benefits towards its stakeholders? (Miners, Developers, Users)3. TokenomicsWhat type of Token is it? Infrastructure? Security? Utility?You're literally supporting a project that is creating a mini-economy for all its users, is it sustainable?The rules are set in code, gather all information you can and see if it's viable.Token SupplyConsensus MechanismInflation or fixedDeflationary (Token Burns?) - Generally appreciates token value when supply decreasesToken buy-backs - Shows projects belief in Vision/MissionCan you see anyone actually using it?Take Ticketing Fraud and Combating it by using the Blockchain & the fallacy due to Token Velocity.Aventus, Ticketchain or BlocktixThat's right. Nobody HODL's Tickets. It's just bad UX and adds another layer of pointlessness.What mechanisms do they have in place to ensure stability of price actionBinance is a good example with their BNB token as no matter the market circumstance, the demand for it exists as it subsidizes all trading fees. Buying OR Selling.---One case study which I'm going to test and draw my conclusion to support the importance of Tokenomics despite a negative sentiment towards the ICO market as a whole will be the case of BCIO.Background:Blockchain.io is being set up by an existing 7 year BTC exchange called Paymium (MVP long passed) with 180,000 accountsHQ in France, Europe's growth in Crypto hasn't been as much as Asia & USA. (Opportunity)Working with Government AMF (French SEC) & French Minister on France as a Blockchain HubRegistered with ACPR (European Banking standards for AML)How their Tokenomics System is Favourable with some quick maths:Total Token Supply = 100MilionInitial Tokens for Sale = 55MillionHard Cap = 23M USDPublic Sale Price = 0.82 USDUnsold Tokens will be burntThey're currently approx. $1.5M+ RaisedTheir Token Sale closes in 3 daysMax Private Sale Bonus about 25% Maybe?Last Bonus was 5%. Let's make a rough average of about 10% discount from original price to consider Private Rounds + Current Public Sale as a pessimistic approach0.82 * 0.9 = 0.738 USD Per TokenMentioned in their Telegram: Approx 1.5M Raised, Rest Unsold are Burned1.5M / 0.738 = 2 Million Circulating Supply53 Million Tokens will be burned from the circulating SupplyWhat does this mean?The value of the token will surge Post ICO as the supply of it is 27x lower than first valuedWhat exactly this value will be? It will range on a number of factorsAlso, Paymium SAS is committing $2.3 Million of its own treasury solely for developing on its operations for the Blockchain.io exchange. None of this goes to any Tokens.I'm just willing to bet that, sure, it's not going to 27x, but it's going to be a bare minimum of a 10x ROI simply because they had gotten five key things right.Based in Europe. There's a lot of capital and Institutional Interest. Adoption is on the rise, but not as close to Asia & USA. It's new territory with regulatory support.They know the game, they've existed for 7 years (Paymium) and are one of the fist Bitcoin Exchanges out there.They're willing to Invest more onto their Exchange directly (no tokens) to fuel their mission.They're an Exchange Token. They're significantly buoyant throughout Market Turbulence.They've got their Tokenomics Right. It's not perfect, they didn't hit the cap, but Token Burning will pump up the value. Why? Obviously reaching equilibrium of Supply and Demand.So I'll see you guys towards the end of the Token Distribution and i'll make another post, possibly cross-post this to prove my point. All opinions are welcome. Oh, and yes, I do have a stake in this project. Does this make the post a shill?I disagree. I'm merely providing you my analysis over some key points here and shedding some light when there are too many scams and noise that are rampant. Everything is a Scam. So let's try look at some case studies and share empirically what makes an ICO succeed. This is my bet.Oh yeah, I just got another Bloody Telegram message.ahh Crypto.
Submitted October 21, 2018 at 06:12PM
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