I have seen a few posts here with users wondering what the price of Moon tokens on this sub are worth, and while they're "technically" not worth anything, I thought it would be fun coming up with an estimate as to how much each token is roughly worth. To do this, I measured using a metric called "Metcalfe's Law". Metcalfe's Law states that the value of a network is n log(n) of the number of participants within the network.For the calculations and statistics I'm using here, I'm getting my information from bitinfocharts.com. I figured to start with measuring this metric through the number of active users on this subreddit. For these metrics, I think it is fair to take the statistics of the last week into consideration, so that there are no outliers in this data set. Since these tokens are technically on Ethereum, that means I will be using some Ethereum statistics in this to get as accurate results as possible.Now for determining the active number of users on the network, I took the top post for this entire week (which has 3,200 upvotes + 300 comments), and assumed an engagement rate of 2.5% (This is the average engagement rates of posts on social media). Using this, the number of active users in the sub can be calculated to be ~140,000. Using this figure, and entering it in the equation v = n log(n), we get a network value of ~720,500.With this value in mind, we have to multiply it by some metric, so for this figure, I decided to multiply it by the median transaction value for Ethereum (7 day SMA). Though there are no available current metrics for median transaction value, the last SMA value for median transaction value is $0.013. I chose the median transaction value because unlike Ethereum, Moons aren't used for wealth transfer or large transactions. Otherwise, I would take the average transaction value into consideration. Multiplying this, the total market cap of Moon tokens is $9,365.95. This gives each token a value of ~$0.000605 per token. Looking at these metrics, this means the user who currently earned the most moons this month earned ~$28.52.Just to show you how accurate this metric is, I'm going to compare it using the active addresses of some of the top coins, and the average transaction value (since other currencies ARE used for wealth transfer) and compare it to the real market cap of these coins:CoinMarket CapMetcalfe's Law Market CapBitcoin~$174,000,000,000~$125,850,000,000Ethereum~$25,955,000,000~$1,188,000,000Bitcoin Cash~$4,425,000,000~$3,230,000,000Bitcoin SV~$3,280,000,000~$10,560,000Litecoin~$2,860,000,000~$1,380,000,000* I think mainly the only reason there is a discrepancy for Ethereum is partly because it's not a currency intended for wealth transfer, but is more focused on creating dApps, and developing DeFi
Submitted June 18, 2020 at 06:01AM
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