No triangles or memes here but if we look at the graph that everyone knows, https://ift.tt/2HJW5Vz, I can tell you why I believe we are in the bear trap phase, and not the despair phase.Smart Money: People like you, me, friends/family we convinced to get in, whales (rich trust fund kids/hedge funds) that were "smart" to realize the potential of cryptos while Joe Shmo is just hearing of it and thinks its a scam or just too risky.Institutional Investors: The same week that bitcoin futures was launched is when the price of bitcoin popped and it all went downhill from there, putting us into the bear trap. We are still in the institutional phase and we just had a huge announcement to get us out of the bear trap, that being Fidelity is providing a platform for institutional investors. SEC rules require institutional investors to maintain their assets with a third-party “qualified custodian”. Before Fidelity, the only place that had this was coinbase and that was launched last summer, but no large institution is going to want to use coinbase, just type in coinbase in google and you will hear countless nightmare scenarios (flash crashes, servers crashing during the most crucial trading times, security issues, locked accounts, you name it). Just imagine how difficult it would be for an institution, let alone their clients, to trust Coinbase with millions if not billions of their dollars. Hell you can't even talk to someone over the phone with Coinbase (except for "unauthorized access to your account"). Fidelity is providing a trustful platform for them (tons already use fidelty, its the fifth largest investment company in the world and if its coming here, you can bet its coming to other places like vanguard and blackrock (experts are saying this as well). Another reason they wouldn't want to use Coinbase is for liquidity. Meaning they don't want to have their money in two different places. If they put it in Coinbase, they can only buy crypto with it, well these guys like to move their money around a lot and don't want to be tied to one type of asset. If everything is in one account they can do as they please.Public Phase: This is when crypto trading comes to places that most people already have access to like Charles Schwab, E-trade, fidelity (retail), and currently robinhood (after they just removed the waiting list in January 2019. Joe Shmo would be much more comfortable buying something from a place he has been using for years but also not having transfer money out of his investment account into another account (bigger deal than you think, its a big step transferring money into coinbase and a much bigger step putting money back into Coinbase after you removed it from there).China (not a significant reason and pretty speculative): Their HSI stock market index has been only increased 5% since 2015. The nasdaq 100 has increased by 65% in the same time. Investors in China are growing impatient and irritated by the stagnant market. To combat this (and to protect their money from their government) they have been buying up properties like crazy in the US and Canada over the past few years. However the housing market has also been stagnate for the past year. Couple this with the year of the pig (hear me out). The Chinese are VERY superstitious, ask any Chinese person that is actually from China. They don't even have 13th floors in their buildings because its an unlucky number (they just skip that floor number, you would be called stupid and insane here if you did that), they also don't want a house with the front door facing the street because then their "money will run away", and for 8888 yuan ($1,300) was a major resistance level for Bitcoin because the number 8 is considered their lucky number and they would sell at this price. The year of the pig symbolizes a year that brings great wealth, they will use this as a reason to invest (call me crazy, I don't care), but remember that the Chinese have 50% of the money in the world. We also know that China also has 80% of the bitcoin mining pools, and more importantly that 20% of the cypto volume comes from China.Japan: Their largest bank, MUFG, 5th largest in the world, is developing a cryptocurrency that can handle a million transactions a second. They need to have this in time for the 2020 Summer Olympics because Japan's current financial system won't be able to handle the volume of transactions they expect during the event. Also its a solution to the government's plan to go cashless by 2025. We know that 40% of the crypto trading volume comes from Japan and so if Japan replaces cash with cryptos or even just becomes part of the economy, well then we know what this means.Lastly here is a technical analysis showing that we have hit bottom because BTC used the 200 moving week average as a supporthttps://i.imgur.com/4gTu8fS.pngIf we really are in a bear trap, I speculate the price could go to $100,000 by the end of 2020.For those who want to follow me https://twitter.com/ScienceGuy9489
Submitted March 22, 2019 at 01:05AM
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