Before you start speculating about 'alt season', look at the goddamn market.

3 of the top 20 projects are exchange tokens. 3 of them are Bitcoin clones. 1 is an Ethereum clone.Before I go further, I'll mention this: I don't think we'll have another nonsensical bull run that will lead to the entire market going up. I think the bubble has popped for real, and that we're close enough to adoption territory that the trash will helplessly slip into oblivion while projects that are able to generate organic demand will naturally insert themselves in our daily lives and thrive. If you believe that we've got at least one big bull market left, then feel free to ignore this.Back to the market. Look at it. Does it feel like it makes sense to you? I've been looking for the answer to this question, and unfortunately the best I've got so far is both yes and no. What kind of metrics can you even use to evaluate whether it makes sense or not? If you look at market cap as a combined measure of future potential and current utility, you're left totally baffled by some of this market's top pics. If you look at market cap as an indicator of an evolving sentiment, however, then it makes sense - because there's virtually no organic demand. People only care about percentage gained or lost. There is zero visibility because there are no viable metrics for valuation. Litecoin's market cap (for example) could be $1B instead of $4B and nobody would give a shit, if it had been 4x small from the start. It wouldn't suddenly rise due to being 'undervalued'.So, look closely at fundamentals. There absolutely are undervalued picks and the market won't spot them in time because people only look at charts.

Submitted August 29, 2019 at 08:00PM

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