It has been a decade since this market's inception and 3 years since I've started monitoring it closely and analyzing it. Whether you're new to crypto or a veteran that has been through multiple bubbles, chances are you don't really know what's going on. Despite surviving the worst bear market so far, we're hovering at a $300B total market cap. So how come crypto journalism is so bad it sticks out even when compared to modern journalism? The answer is that the lack of available foresight and unbiased analyses is very much on purpose.Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV and other clones (and almost everything else, but clones aren't as nebulous) really give you a great window on the insanity of this market. Everyone who tries to attach any kind of metrics to these projects or make realistic predictions regarding adoption and 'fair value' is prompted with a question: "Who in their right mind could think this is worth 5+ billions?" Since it's essentially impossible to reconcile market valuation and fundamentals, they assume that there's something they're not getting, that there's crucial information they lack, so they resume business as usual. There has to be a reason, right? The truth is that crypto as a whole is a rare and insanely profitable cocktail. The market is split almost perfectly in two (by perfectly, I don't mean a 50/50 split, I mean that these two sides represent almost 100% of the market):Manipulators, who have the means to perform due diligence and are fully aware that the vast, vast majority of projects will absolutely never go anywhere, yet that a select few might explode.Gamblers, who do not understand the underlying technology (and even less the economic environment surrounding said technology) but are ready to shell out millions collectively to make a quick profit.The amount of people who perform thorough, unbiased research and invest carefully is staggeringly low, simply because there are very few individuals with the resources required to sift through the bullshit and without any intention to exploit the market. Coupled with extremely low real liquidity (arbitrage and market makers shouldn't really be considered), this results in a nonsensical market of booms & busts that benefits manipulators every time. However, none of this would be possible if it weren't for a key ingredient: Bitcoin. As long as Bitcoin and any of its clones gravitate towards the top, you can be sure that the market conditions haven't changed, because they act as indicators. Our top meme is a perfect testament to that: "HODL" is based on the bizarre and baseless assumption that the past will repeat ad vitam, and it does a great job keeping liquidity low. In short, it's a perfect gauge of the community's overall idiocy.Mainstream media only exacerbates the issue. It's much less costly (and thus, more profitable) for it to invite supporters or critics of Bitcoin to push a certain agenda than it is to pay competent journalists or experts to provide a detailed explanation of smart contracts and the rise of a programmable economy, for example. Yet I can tell you that in most professional circles, nobody talks about Bitcoin. Manufacturers don't care about receiving payments in Bitcoin, they care about data integrity and security. Energy consortia aren't interested in having households pay their bills with Litecoin, they care about autonomous, self-balancing, self-monitoring grids that optimize electricity distribution and pricing.There are several projects that have a much better chance to overcome the hurdles of adoption, yet it's unlikely you'll find them in the top 10 positions, because they're neither sexy nor simple. Why would manipulators waste time, money and effort inflating those projects' value, when they know full well that they'll appreciate on their own in due time? It's much easier to extract as much money as possible from morons who are willing to 'invest' in worthless junk and let the rest depreciate dramatically to secure a lower entry point. Even as the technology progresses and real innovations are made public, tribalism and hit pieces take care of the rest.TL;DR: Current prices are not indicative of future success. If you've performed the research and come to the conclusion that an asset is undervalued, believe in yourself. This market is not your friend, it exists only to take your money.
Submitted August 12, 2019 at 09:18PM
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