Correction: USD 4.200 MILLION USDThis Friday, April 30, there will be the expiration of bitcoin options (BTC) equivalent to USD 4.2 billion. This generates expectations in the market, since in previous months this date has caused an upward movement in the value of the cryptocurrency.Bitcoin options are an investment tool that allows you to set the purchase or sale price of the cryptocurrency at a certain time in the future. These contracts can be executed at any time or, failing that, they will become effective when the expiration date arrives. Unlike futures, the holder is not obligated to buy or sell the asset if he chooses not to.The last day for monthly options to expire is the last Friday of each month. In the last expiration dates, the price of the cryptocurrency has undergone variations that report a certain trend.In this sense, the statistics indicate that before the options expire there is an average drop of 26% in their value; however, after expiration the price rebounds and rises to an average 65%.The blue lines indicate the expiration date of the bitcoin options, followed by increases in price.This variation in price can be seen in the figures for the last few months. Following the previous bitcoin options expiration dates - which were December 25, January 29, February 26 and March 26, 2021 - the value growth was 86%, 102%, 43% and 29% , respectively. Also, this upward movement was sustained for 14, 25, 14 and 20 days.However, it is also noteworthy that prior to all these expiration dates there had been a depreciation of bitcoin, which reached 31%, 26%, 19% and 27% in December, January, February and March, respectively. This downward trend had been maintained for a period of 21, 6, 12 and 10 in each of these months, respectively.With respect to April, this analysis places the expiration date on Friday, April 23, despite not being the last Friday of the month, at which time the "official expiration" will take place.Taking into account the trend described above, the upward wave would have already started: from Friday 23rd to Sunday 25th there was a brake on the decline in price that had been observed, which then resumed until it fell to the USD 47,499 line. From there, the increase has been almost continuous, surpassing USD 55,000 on Tuesday, April 27.Can Bitcoin exceed its all-time high?Despite all that has been said, the "real date" for expiration is Friday, April 30, which causes some uncertainty as to what may happen this time.Generally, before the expiration date it is sought to take it to the Max Pain Point or "point of maximum suffering", which this month stands at USD 54,000 according to Deribit. This would be the most beneficial point for the sellers and the most damaging for the buyers. If the average increase reported in recent months were to be repeated (approximately 65%), by mid to late May the new value would be around USD 90,000 and would mean a new all-time high for the cryptocurrency.Key facts:After the latest option expirations, BTC had an average appreciation of 26%.The maximum increase occurred after the end of January, with a 102% appreciation.
Submitted April 29, 2021 at 01:05AM
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