SummaryHi all, it's your friendly data science guy! There are many opinions on how high ETH can reach this cycle, so I looked at the data to get a better answer.In 2017:ETH Dominance (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) ranged from 9% to 18% (peak) to 30% (July 2017)ETH/BTC ranged from 0.007 to 0.1 (peak) to 0.15 (June 2017)ETH was overvalued by ~4096% in 2018 peak relative to logarithmic regressionIn 2021ETH Dominance (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) held at 7%ETH/BTC held at 0.016TakeawaysIf we look at ETH Dominance and ETH/BTC tables below, the average of the likely scenarios in red box are in the upper 8k rangeThe total crypto market cap went up by 55x from 2013 peak (15B) to 2017 peak (830B)In 2021, it is certainly not impossible for crypto market cap to go up 5-10x from 2017 peakETH will likely hit a resistance at 1T market cap. Given that this market cycle is faster than last cycle, its possible that we will peak out sooner in ~Aug/Sep. ETH at 1T market cap (adjusted for increased supply) in Aug is 8,511If we look at ETH Log regression in August and apply a similar over-valuation, it puts ETH at 7,805The most likely outcome is that ETH will reach ~8k this cycle and any higher is statistically unlikely.DetailsETH DominanceETH/BTC ratio vs BTC PriceETH Log Regression fitted to non-bubble dataBitcoin Cycles compared (shows how current cycle is moving faster than last cycle)
Submitted April 20, 2021 at 11:43AM
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